24 September 2015

Today USD vs MYR


non-stop dropping... :(
when will be the end?

[Reshare] Nazir Razak: Moody's 'junk' rating due to negative coverage of Malaysia

Well...  undeniable, 1MDB really is a time bomb which dragging down Malaysia reputation. What a 'junk' rating!

"PETALING JAYA: Financial controversies in Malaysia need to be addressed, urges prominent banker and CIMB Group chairman Datuk Seri Nazir Razak.
"This is worrying. The market is much more negative about Malaysia than the rating agencies, taking us into 'junk' category, way below our fundamentals," said the brother of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak in a post on his Instagram on Thursday.
Nazir, who is also CIMB group chairman, suspects that credit-default-swap traders have placed Malaysia in the "junk" category due to the large amount of negative coverage in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and the New York Times.
"All 'capital' people read at least one, if not all of them. We have to change the current narrative about Malaysia with answers or legal suits; can't just ignore them," he warned.
Though Nazir did not specify what Malaysia had to answer for, the country has made international headlines for controversies involving the Government-owned investment arm 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).source

23 September 2015

Happy Holiday to Malaysia. Have FUN!!!


貸款難批‧負面財富效應‧房價不會崩跌

(吉隆坡23日訊)大馬產業領域持續受到消費者負擔能力惡化衝擊,銀行借貸條件更為嚴峻則是“雪上加霜”;負面財富效應及市場謹慎情緒,料打擊產業的購買情緒,使產業股受到過低估值衝擊,但產業價格崩潰的幾率微小。



金融危機時期
房價僅跌2%

根據分析,就算在2008-2009年的全球金融危機時期,本地住宅產業價格僅微跌2%,比較馬股綜指則重挫37%。
分析員也預測,整體產業銷售成長持續放緩,惟仍看好持有便宜地皮及資產負債表強勁的產業股。
大眾研究指出,國內住宅產業貸款申請成長持續放緩,今年7月份按年下跌3.3%,使住宅產業貸款批准按年下跌17.8%,顯示銀行貸款更為嚴格,使產業需求在融資放緩擠壓下進一步向下調。
大眾預期在打債之下,未來的貸款要求可能更嚴格。

股市興衰影響房市
目前馬股走低將進一步衝擊置產活動,因為股市興衰與房市息息相關。
大眾將馬股綜指今年杪目標降至1740點,之前預測為1830點,使今年全年目標扯平無驚喜。
馬幣匯率急貶及馬股受到下行衝擊,令市場措手不及,出現負面財富效應,衝擊房產買氣。不過,大眾認為,雖然目前產業領域營運環境艱辛,但產業價格崩潰的可能性非常微小。
大眾看好擁有便宜地皮成本及強勁資產負債表的產業股,使一些產業股估值比賬面折扣逾50%,比持有實際產業資產更便宜,特別是長期將隨著通膨一起揚升,同時可獲約3%的周息率。
“若市場沒有出現重大震盪,產業價格料保持平穩,特別是過去3年平均價仍取得10.6%增長,主要是產業發展商的資產價值、土地及投資資產仍完好無損。”
大多數產業發展商今年次季營業額仍取得成長,因為獲得健全未入賬銷售支撐,預料今年下半年取得令人鼓舞的營業額。
由於市場挑戰,使產業發展商推介較小規模的產業計劃,並專注在有地及可負擔房產。
“若以產業領域股價對賬面值比的高低水平為准,目前的下行估值約為30%,不過上升空間則達到約77%,風險對回酬比例仍看高一線。”

產業股過度調整
大眾相信目前產業股已過度調整,維持產業領域“加碼”評級。
大眾認為,產業發展商的盈利主要來自土地增值及發展利潤。假設僅計算發展利潤,而不將土地增值考慮在內,以目前產業股的股價估值為准,預料產業價格將下跌10至20%,特別是大多數產業股估值,比重估淨資產值折扣約70%。
大資本產業發展商――實達集團(SPSETIA,8664,主板產業組)通常在1.2倍賬面比水平交易,在最新低水平落在1.4倍交易。UEM陽光(UEMS,5148,主板產業組)則是近期跌勢最嚴重產業股,賬面值比一度深跌至0.65倍低點(最近回揚至0.76倍)。
根據大馬交易所產業股指數顯示,目前整體產業領域的估值,已跌至比平均賬面值比折價35%,市場一旦反彈,跌得最深的產業股,料獲得較好的反彈。

3產業股獲點名
●實達集團
具領導地位、估值便宜及擁有抗跌品牌的產業股,手中握有110億令吉的未入賬銷售,擁有2、3年盈利透明度。地庫達4千英畝,發展總值達逾700億令吉。

●UEM陽光
約80%地皮坐落在依斯干達地區,為努沙再也最大地主。手握地庫1萬1千英畝,發展總值約達1千億令吉。

●怡保花園(IGB,1597,主板產業組)
最具抗跌能力,特別是逾75%盈利來自穩定租金收入,包括零售及辦公室產業,未來受看好新產業發展計劃,為柔佛州南部谷中城計劃(Mid Valley Southkey),後者發展總值估計為80億令吉。
海外產業計劃則在英國倫敦,料在2015年下半年推介,此綜合發展計劃的發展總值為42億令吉。
(星洲日報/財經‧報導:李文龍)
分析員預測,整體產業銷售成長持續放緩,惟仍看好持有便宜地皮及資產負債表強勁的產業股。(圖:馬新社)

Days after the RM20bil donkey show

Just about a week after the fund of RM20bil announced to save the day. However, the market somehow behaved unexpectedly when everyone still enjoying the ride back above 168X. KLCI has been consecutively dropped for the pass few days and MYR weaken to 4.33+ against USD. Besides, the foreign fund were also found retreating...

Up until now, we never hear of any news from the ValueCap but merely based on own imagination. Many so called GLC related counters were already rebound for more than 20% within days after the announcement. But things seems to be so abstract as no one know where it gone. @.@a

Well, stock market really is a place full of excitement. It can climb up few hundred points up because of some "news" and also can back to square within days. Somehow questions still remained blurred, where and when this RM20bil be rolling out? Donkey show were about to be over and it's time for the real call. Show time's coming, either it is a bull or a bear? we shall see... enjoy it...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

22 September 2015

When can Ringgit back from the "death"?

One thing we are so sure for dragging down the Ringgit Malaysia are those scandals related to 1MDB(not to blame the global sentimental yet). The BNM Governor has been so quite since every rotten apples being discovered day by day. Really glad THEY have started to voice out for the good of the country. She is right that the people deserve to know what is really happening. Well, how long this 1MDB being questioned or investigated? Until now we have no clear answer about it! What is so difficult by just showing how the company's transaction flows? The PM should play an important role as he chairs the fund's advisory board. Don't just delay answering or giving excuses as require more time to do investigation. Do let others to help if you not able to do it, many out there are willing to lean a helping hand... 

Back to the subject! When can Ringgit back from the "death"? Easy, stand out and clear your name.
Looking forward to this...

Time for a popcorn!!!

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

20 September 2015

Invest in GOLD?

I'm still remember 3 years back, I'd invested into Gold(paper terms) when the price was about RM165/g. Back then, fuyoh... many banks were offering gold account for you to hedge against inflation(they said). However, my thought that time was just to keep some of my saving in other types of portfolio rather than property as many seniors were still not encouraging me in stock trading yet. Soon, I'd began to buy into gold and have waited for it to hit another height(RM180/g - 2012). Unfortunately, gold price later was not as how beautiful it's looks and the spread(buy/sell rate) was not that good(RM7 of spread) to an ordinary man like me. Why not good? For example, Banks selling at RM10 to you but you can only sell to them at RM3(take a look at below screenshot taken just now)...

Well, the charges is quite expensive as every transactions(buy and sell) imposed a 4.24%... Meaning I need to earn more than 4.24% only can considered as profit. Somehow, things has not gone as good as it was expected,  and sadly the gold price kept dropping after I'd bought in(stupid me). Months later, I decided to sell all after it dropped to RM155/g(forced to sell at RM148/g, due to the spread) which equivalent to 10.x% loss(hmm...just realised I know cut loss even before stock trading... hahaha).

After this experience, I would only think that gold as an jewellery which for you to display or show off(but some time keep, like the old folks do). Besides, I will not think this as an type of investment anymore since then. Why? because it's actually has no appreciate value but merely depend on the supply and demand. In fact, it will not generate you passive income like stock giving out dividend/bonus/free gift or eat(during AGM).

Anyway, not to admit that gold is really a beautiful metal when you are holding it physically. That why I've just bought some to wear regardless it will appreciate or not. kikiki... it's still shinning :)

Well, don't get mad at me as it's just my opinion or you can share your view if you disagree with me. Sorry ya...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

17 September 2015

A dummy's trading experience Part-4: Profit Taking

Actually, it has been almost 2 years(3months to go) since I started investing in stock exchange. Well... honestly, I probably loss more than earn. In fact, I'd experienced 2 times of biggest dropped so far which the first time was crude oil slumped(last year) and another one just happened recently(after July this year). My biggest loss was around 30% last year(but slowing recovering to less than 20%) and this is the reason why my blog always have the terms of cutting loss(see this Cut Loss). However, not much to share about how I locked my profit as this is so subjective. As the matter of facts, my preferred level of profit taking is when it hit 30% in short term(6 months) but my initial strategy was to keep for more than 2 years if the company is paying dividend. There is no right or wrong but, I learnt to take profit that if noticed the market sentiment is weaker and the company ROE/EPS starting to drop(and many more factors). Why no right or wrong? For your info, my brightest star last time, SBC(bought at RM1.3 shown in pict) has once went all the way to RM1.9 and I'd sold all at RM1.85. Speechlessly happy, when you think you won the market huh? Lol, it somehow went above RM2 after APRIL the same year :)... and thats the meaning why no right or wrong about it as long as you earn then is considered good.


Lucky, I didn't chase the high as everyone were so excitedly screaming here TP(Target Price) RM3 or even more.
Well, what am trying to say here is set some target price and sell it when reached. Unless you are very confident with your research for it to gain more in longer term, otherwise lock the profit first. Notice that we have many choices if you have capital on hand rite? Anyway, It's always about your strategy as different people may have different objective. Try to note down what is your preferred level of profit taking and execute with your strategy. Improve it from time to time, and hope one day we will achieve what we seeking for(of course is $$$).

Aww... guess now I have to start all over again as I'd loss all the profit earned last year(around 40%). It's difficult but I think is just another 'dot' of my life which lead me to understand deeper in how to survive in stock exchange.

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

16 September 2015

The RM20bil

Ever wonder, why government intervened the stock market by injecting RM20bil?
To be honest, I'm quite worried and not sure how this will help our economy fundamentally. However, the market is positively behaved after the government's announcement. The ValueCap emerged out of nowhere with this huge capital like GOD. Khazanah, PNB and also KWAP suddenly became the saviour from certain point of view. Why RM20bil but not RM40bil directly push above 1700? What's the point if not focusing on the exact issue causing the foreigns retreat unconfidently? The stock market is actually reflecting on how well Malaysia economy is doing. I maybe wrong, but am pretty sure is due to your politics, your economic policy and part of the overall sentiment. The government should come out with something really help or boost the economy. As the matter of facts, government can do something like promoting local products oversea, improving the infrastructure, subsidise anything that benefits to the citizen and many more. Sorry to say that, obviously the government have no care to the people but to own benefits(GLC)! The people don't feel secure/safe while you became trader yourself to earn some handsome profits huh? The foreigns fund would be so happy when you helps them to unload more. This is definitely a short term solution only. And is not a wise play after all. Let we all see how long the government can play...

feeling disappointing...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

15 September 2015

Sharing: How To Invest Like Warren Buffett

WARREN Buffett is the third richest person on Earth with a net worth that’s north of US$60 billion (RM258 billion).

I remember in 1992, while interviewing my friend Tan Teng Boo for Malaysian Business magazine, I asked: “Who is Warren Buffett?” Tan told me in enthusiastic detail. In the intervening decades, Tan, a fan and student of Buffett, has racked up a fine record as a fund manager.

In recent months, before global volatility spiked, Tan sold profitable equity positions and raised the cash levels of his domestic and international funds. Initially, as markets continued rising, his moves elicited disdain; but the grumbles gave way to respect for Tan as cash has been the best performing and most defensive asset class in the current global market turmoil! What I have gleaned from studying Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders of his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway and several biographies has helped me better serve my financial planning clients. Warren Edward Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska, the United States, on Aug 30, 1930. His father was a stockbroker whom the younger Buffett adored. In later years, Buffett attributed the honing of his mental investment framework to two teachers: Benjamin Graham (85 per cent) and Philip Fisher (15 per cent)! Over the last half century, Buffett has used the balance sheet of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, as “a canvas to paint” an economic masterpiece through judicious stock investments and the wholesale purchase of businesses.

Here are four less-ons from numerous Buffett-derived principles which I have taught my clients:

1. Nurture emotional strength When times are good, it is easy for all of us to label ourselves investors. But what separates the men from the boys is the ability to keep a cool head when everyone else is terrified by imploding markets. You see, markets rise and fall… with certainty but unknown periodicity and magnitude! So, as Buffett once wrote: “Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”
2. Know the difference between value and price The best way to make money is to buy low and sell high. Only those who truly internalise this principle can grow wealthy through investing. On March 16, 1979, Buffett explained in his 1978 letter to shareholders: “We continue to find… small portions of really outstanding businesses that are available, through the auction pricing mechanism of securities markets, at prices dramatically cheaper than the valuations inferior businesses command on negotiated sales.” Today, more than 36 years later, local and global markets are roiling from Chinese securities markets, commodity and currency downturns. Therefore, countless opportunities will arise for you to identify the yawning gaps between intrinsic economic value and temporarily depressed prices.
3. Allocate capital wisely Buffett has long maintained that his one core skill was capital allocation. When he took over Berkshire Hathaway half a century ago in 1965, it was a struggling New England textile maker. He then allocated the dwindling stream of cash flow from the ailing concern into businesses with brighter prospects. He diverted Berkshire’s free cash flow into positions in general insurer Geico and other undervalued listed companies. So, by the time Buffett shuttered the last Berkshire textile plant in 1985 his reinvented investment holding company enjoyed cash gushing in from diversified insurance, retailing, media, banking and confectionery operations.
4. Maintain large cash reserves for stability and opportunistic flexibility In his 2008 letter (published February 27, 2009) to shareholders, Buffett wrote: “I have pledged — to you, the rating agencies and myself — to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. “We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow’s obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night’s sleep for the chance of extra profits.” So, for the tough road ahead, I encourage you to tap into this incomparable wisdom by studying his Berkshire shareholder letters (www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html).

Source : How To Invest Like Warren Buffett

14 September 2015

Why so serious? Have some fun guys :)

No matter how bad the market going to be... we should stay happily... have fun!!!


still learning and always will be... to be continued... LOL
:)

13 September 2015

Are you ready for the Market?

Have you ever wonder, why are so many analysts/ medias/ or even government are still telling you that "NO BIG DEAL" for current market? Have you ever feel or thought of another crisis is near the corner? Yeah, I think is time to sit down and think about this before entering the mist(so hazy). Stop believing the positive news! Why? Well, take a look at these
- world indices(just look at Malaysia will do)

- gold(from highest 1900USD/oz till now around 1100USD/oz)
- RM(depreciated 18% since Jun, just only 3 months? Well... not so much only... Our "smart" ministers said is beneficial for export and so)
- weak commodity price(Crude oil to around 45USD/barrel)
- however, regards the local "Good" news inside Malaysia. We are proud to present GST and 1MDB and "Good" leader(donations from middle east, many more coming) and Foreign fund saying sayonara and Foreign reserve going low and so many more... sigh...

See for yourself, don't positively think the market will be better in near terms as "Many" are covering it up with positive news! This slow down, will somehow benefits to those who are ready but definitely not the newbie(or whom not aware)... In facts, these are signs showing bear is more stronger than bull.

Sigh(disappointed)... go oversea -> think twice(weak RM), stay within Malaysia -> hard(super inflation, money seems so small now), and investment -> difficult(not pro). Only one word can describe "Suffer"! 

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

12 September 2015

A dummy's trading experience Part-3: Cut loss

Frankly, no one hope to loss their investment... aww, who don't want to earn more? Somehow, trading in stock exchange does not guarantee profits but in fact, you may loss more than earn sometimes. The market can be so cruel and they don't care who you are or how new you are... haha... all about they care is of course $$$(Money). We may get ourself hit until bleed if we didn't learn some tactics to protect ourself. One of the tricks is to not to loss more than your preferred loss comfort level and doing so we can still protect our capital. Think those pro named it "Cut loss" but I called it "stop bleed and come back later" hahaha... Tell you, this is not funny but this is really helpful. Me experienced numerous times of cut loss and then able to join back at lower price to enjoy the rebound(sometimes bro, i meant sometimes)! By the way, my cut loss point was around 15% initially(I was a long term investor) and slowly became 10% then now preferred at 8-10%. I know is crucial for some people watching your portfolio valued lesser and lesser but, if you still locking your capital in and kept yourself watching only will only make yourself feel more painful. Of course, most of you've developed your own preferred way to trade and I'm not saying you are wrong but don't you think locking it until it to rebound may takes months or even years. Imagine, during the locking period, you may lose a lot of opportunities to buy some other potential stocks. For your info, I've just cut another loss for SBC at around 0.90(purchased at 1.0) and lowest it hit 0.64(hell, that's around 26% dropped but I managed to stop the bleed earlier and lucky to collect some other good counter that rebound after that). Well, I guess am just lucky again...

After so many times of stop bleed(cut loss) I do realised that I can buy any counter because I have cash in the weak/bad market! So I come out with a conclusion that, wise people are waiting the market to collapse and they can get to buy more superstar cheaper with the cash on hand. So if your capital is not liquid enough then you may just only watching the rich become richer while holding a bucket of blood(Sorry, I've no mean). Well... Try to develop your own tactic to practice it and also be disciplined for it to protect your hard earn money!

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

9 September 2015

A dummy's trading experience Part-2: Strategy

Ever heard of anyone saying the first step of Investment is not to lose money? Well, that seems to be very simple, however it's not practical to me. You'll see, many often dreams to earn first, but eventually loss in reality. What I can say that is actually a norm and don't blame yourself as we are human(especially to newbie), we made mistakes and fall. What really matters are, we practice, learn and always find a better strategy. 

I have a friend who recently loss more than 70% of his capital trading stocks in less than a year... hmm, am not sure how he did it but I'm pretty sure he never prepared himself for the drop. The sad thing is, he already quit and stopped trading after losing so many. To some certain extent, he's good in protecting capital balance from losing again but I would say it's not a wise move. For me, I would take a few days/weeks to rest(but still keep myself updated to the market) and reconsider the strategy which is really workout for me. Remember, don't run away from mistakes but equip yourself a better plan or try to learn more from a successful investors(which I assumed you already have a role model). Frankly, I can assure you that no one can guarantee that they can make profit every time even those successful peeps out there were once with head bleeding... So, stay strong, stay positive and of course don't forget to equip yourself the rightful knowledge before reenter the war.

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

7 September 2015

A dummy's trading experience Part-1: No Rush

Well, sharing this isn't just for others to follow/refer(because I'm just a dummy) but to keep myself awake and hope I would not fall like previous.

All this while I earned, learnt! and of course mostly loss... However talking about stocks, my experience tells me "don't rush into buying a stock". In this cyber generation, we can easily find informations for a company eg: QR(quarter reports)/ balance sheet/ researcher's report and many more. We can actually start reading and try to understand what the company are doing(many of my friends bought a lot of counters that they don't even know what's the company is doing), do some own analysis(try to understand some basic of technical analysis, and don't forget the fundamental of the company), and many more. You have no choice but to put a side and kept it monitored if it's price already gone up before your analysis is done. We don't have to chase it unless you think it's very worth investing it. Do remember, we always have other chance or other counters to invest while we still have cash(Cash is King right?).

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)

6 September 2015

A dummy's trading experience Part-0: Start from Zero

I think nothing much to talk about myself as just an ordinary man who trying to earn some pocket money by investing in stock exchange(we normally called it KLSE: Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange in Malaysia). I'm still remember my first counter chosen was AIRASIA(5099), during year end of 2013 which I bought it at RM2.2 and felt so happy because it went up 6% few days later. Since that day(lucky) I thought "hey... this is so easy to make money in KLSE". Soon, I'd started to pump more money into the trading account and hoping to get "fast" money. After that, I've gained more attention in stock market everyday, watching news and even using apps to monitor it. Hoping to understand more and learn more about the market... so, I could make more money in the stock exchange. My second IRIS(0010) had helped me to get more than 10% during the Chinese New Year(2014) and then I bought SBCCORP(5207) later which also made some handsome profit about(30%+). It's seems to be so easy and I started to think 'am a god' in investing. I also topped up even more later as i thought this will help me gain more and of course 'FAST'. Happy huh? seeing someone without any of this so called 'stock exchange' knowledge can make money so easily.

A while later, I made more moves to buy in some counters like GUH(3247), OKA(7140) and more. However, everything seems to be so fine until the world oil price slumped! See, I have no idea what it has to do with my stock that time and it just impacted(more than 30% of Malaysia Government revenue were depending on oil). Without knowing what to do, i just saw my portfolio had turned red for all the counters I've bought over months. People panics, force selling and never see a clear sky during that time. Then, I learnt the terms 'cut loss' during the discussion with my friends. Hence, I also cut my losing and parked my cash until I feel is right to re-enter again.

Since that day, I was trading very patiently and not rushing into the market as 'that' fears me off so badly. I know some who earned and I assumed, mostly have at least 30% negative in the account and still trying to think they know the market so well which can bring their money back after that storm. See, I was so naive and trying to pretend myself knowing the 'Mr Market' very well(but is not true). Am, writing this because I'm still learning and wanted warn those(newbie) who are out there trying to earn fast money like I do. You guys saw how the past months goes as FF(foreign fund) kept selling off, Czech refused the bailout(initially), more lower oil price it goes, RM and Yen depreciated, and not to say our political un-stability. For your info, I have sold all again as to locked in some profit last 2 months before it touches 1500 points(another lucky time for me). I am not asking to sell at this time but, you should start reconsidering whether this is the right time to hold long or sell in the current situation. Think I've missed a lot of details which i will continue to share it soon...

*this is not a buy/sell call and it's merely a sharing*
*don't rush and always play safe*

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...
Still learning and always will be :)