Happy Holiday to Malaysia. Have FUN!!!

貸款難批‧負面財富效應‧房價不會崩跌

（吉隆坡23日訊）大馬產業領域持續受到消費者負擔能力惡化衝擊，銀行借貸條件更為嚴峻則是“雪上加霜”；負面財富效應及市場謹慎情緒，料打擊產業的購買情緒，使產業股受到過低估值衝擊，但產業價格崩潰的幾率微小。

金融危機時期
房價僅跌2%

根據分析，就算在2008-2009年的全球金融危機時期，本地住宅產業價格僅微跌2%，比較馬股綜指則重挫37%。

分析員也預測，整體產業銷售成長持續放緩，惟仍看好持有便宜地皮及資產負債表強勁的產業股。

大眾研究指出，國內住宅產業貸款申請成長持續放緩，今年7月份按年下跌3.3%，使住宅產業貸款批准按年下跌17.8%，顯示銀行貸款更為嚴格，使產業需求在融資放緩擠壓下進一步向下調。

大眾預期在打債之下，未來的貸款要求可能更嚴格。

股市興衰影響房市

目前馬股走低將進一步衝擊置產活動，因為股市興衰與房市息息相關。

大眾將馬股綜指今年杪目標降至1740點，之前預測為1830點，使今年全年目標扯平無驚喜。

馬幣匯率急貶及馬股受到下行衝擊，令市場措手不及，出現負面財富效應，衝擊房產買氣。不過，大眾認為，雖然目前產業領域營運環境艱辛，但產業價格崩潰的可能性非常微小。

大眾看好擁有便宜地皮成本及強勁資產負債表的產業股，使一些產業股估值比賬面折扣逾50%，比持有實際產業資產更便宜，特別是長期將隨著通膨一起揚升，同時可獲約3%的周息率。

“若市場沒有出現重大震盪，產業價格料保持平穩，特別是過去3年平均價仍取得10.6%增長，主要是產業發展商的資產價值、土地及投資資產仍完好無損。”

大多數產業發展商今年次季營業額仍取得成長，因為獲得健全未入賬銷售支撐，預料今年下半年取得令人鼓舞的營業額。

由於市場挑戰，使產業發展商推介較小規模的產業計劃，並專注在有地及可負擔房產。

“若以產業領域股價對賬面值比的高低水平為准，目前的下行估值約為30%，不過上升空間則達到約77%，風險對回酬比例仍看高一線。”

產業股過度調整

大眾相信目前產業股已過度調整，維持產業領域“加碼”評級。

大眾認為，產業發展商的盈利主要來自土地增值及發展利潤。假設僅計算發展利潤，而不將土地增值考慮在內，以目前產業股的股價估值為准，預料產業價格將下跌10至20%，特別是大多數產業股估值，比重估淨資產值折扣約70%。

大資本產業發展商――實達集團（SPSETIA，8664，主板產業組）通常在1.2倍賬面比水平交易，在最新低水平落在1.4倍交易。UEM陽光（UEMS，5148，主板產業組）則是近期跌勢最嚴重產業股，賬面值比一度深跌至0.65倍低點（最近回揚至0.76倍）。

根據大馬交易所產業股指數顯示，目前整體產業領域的估值，已跌至比平均賬面值比折價35%，市場一旦反彈，跌得最深的產業股，料獲得較好的反彈。

3產業股獲點名

●實達集團

具領導地位、估值便宜及擁有抗跌品牌的產業股，手中握有110億令吉的未入賬銷售，擁有2、3年盈利透明度。地庫達4千英畝，發展總值達逾700億令吉。

●UEM陽光

約80%地皮坐落在依斯干達地區，為努沙再也最大地主。手握地庫1萬1千英畝，發展總值約達1千億令吉。

●怡保花園（IGB，1597，主板產業組）

最具抗跌能力，特別是逾75%盈利來自穩定租金收入，包括零售及辦公室產業，未來受看好新產業發展計劃，為柔佛州南部谷中城計劃（Mid Valley Southkey），後者發展總值估計為80億令吉。

海外產業計劃則在英國倫敦，料在2015年下半年推介，此綜合發展計劃的發展總值為42億令吉。

（星洲日報／財經‧報導：李文龍)

分析員預測，整體產業銷售成長持續放緩，惟仍看好持有便宜地皮及資產負債表強勁的產業股。（圖：馬新社）

Days after the RM20bil donkey show

Just about a week after the fund of RM20bil announced to save the day. However, the market somehow behaved unexpectedly when everyone still enjoying the ride back above 168X. KLCI has been consecutively dropped for the pass few days and MYR weaken to 4.33+ against USD. Besides, the foreign fund were also found retreating...

Up until now, we never hear of any news from the ValueCap but merely based on own imagination. Many so called GLC related counters were already rebound for more than 20% within days after the announcement. But things seems to be so abstract as no one know where it gone. @.@a

Well, stock market really is a place full of excitement. It can climb up few hundred points up because of some "news" and also can back to square within days. Somehow questions still remained blurred, where and when this RM20bil be rolling out? Donkey show were about to be over and it's time for the real call. Show time's coming, either it is a bull or a bear? we shall see... enjoy it...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

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When can Ringgit back from the "death"?

One thing we are so sure for dragging down the Ringgit Malaysia are those scandals related to 1MDB(not to blame the global sentimental yet). The BNM Governor has been so quite since every rotten apples being discovered day by day. Really glad THEY have started to voice out for the good of the country. She is right that the people deserve to know what is really happening. Well, how long this 1MDB being questioned or investigated? Until now we have no clear answer about it! What is so difficult by just showing how the company's transaction flows? The PM should play an important role as he chairs the fund's advisory board. Don't just delay answering or giving excuses as require more time to do investigation. Do let others to help if you not able to do it, many out there are willing to lean a helping hand... 

Back to the subject! When can Ringgit back from the "death"? Easy, stand out and clear your name.

Looking forward to this...

Time for a popcorn!!!

• Malaysia PM involved in U.S. corruption inquiry - NYT >Source<
• Why will Nuts feel disappointed? just shut up and work like a dog...
• The world is watching

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

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Invest in GOLD?

I'm still remember 3 years back, I'd invested into Gold(paper terms) when the price was about RM165/g. Back then, fuyoh... many banks were offering gold account for you to hedge against inflation(they said). However, my thought that time was just to keep some of my saving in other types of portfolio rather than property as many seniors were still not encouraging me in stock trading yet. Soon, I'd began to buy into gold and have waited for it to hit another height(RM180/g - 2012). Unfortunately, gold price later was not as how beautiful it's looks and the spread(buy/sell rate) was not that good(RM7 of spread) to an ordinary man like me. Why not good? For example, Banks selling at RM10 to you but you can only sell to them at RM3(take a look at below screenshot taken just now)...

Well, the charges is quite expensive as every transactions(buy and sell) imposed a 4.24%... Meaning I need to earn more than 4.24% only can considered as profit. Somehow, things has not gone as good as it was expected,  and sadly the gold price kept dropping after I'd bought in(stupid me). Months later, I decided to sell all after it dropped to RM155/g(forced to sell at RM148/g, due to the spread) which equivalent to 10.x% loss(hmm...just realised I know cut loss even before stock trading... hahaha).

After this experience, I would only think that gold as an jewellery which for you to display or show off(but some time keep, like the old folks do). Besides, I will not think this as an type of investment anymore since then. Why? because it's actually has no appreciate value but merely depend on the supply and demand. In fact, it will not generate you passive income like stock giving out dividend/bonus/free gift or eat(during AGM).

Anyway, not to admit that gold is really a beautiful metal when you are holding it physically. That why I've just bought some to wear regardless it will appreciate or not. kikiki... it's still shinning :)

Well, don't get mad at me as it's just my opinion or you can share your view if you disagree with me. Sorry ya...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

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A dummy's trading experience Part-4: Profit Taking

Actually, it has been almost 2 years(3months to go) since I started investing in stock exchange. Well... honestly, I probably loss more than earn. In fact, I'd experienced 2 times of biggest dropped so far which the first time was crude oil slumped(last year) and another one just happened recently(after July this year). My biggest loss was around 30% last year(but slowing recovering to less than 20%) and this is the reason why my blog always have the terms of cutting loss(see this Cut Loss). However, not much to share about how I locked my profit as this is so subjective. As the matter of facts, my preferred level of profit taking is when it hit 30% in short term(6 months) but my initial strategy was to keep for more than 2 years if the company is paying dividend. There is no right or wrong but, I learnt to take profit that if noticed the market sentiment is weaker and the company ROE/EPS starting to drop(and many more factors). Why no right or wrong? For your info, my brightest star last time, SBC(bought at RM1.3 shown in pict) has once went all the way to RM1.9 and I'd sold all at RM1.85. Speechlessly happy, when you think you won the market huh? Lol, it somehow went above RM2 after APRIL the same year :)... and thats the meaning why no right or wrong about it as long as you earn then is considered good.

Lucky, I didn't chase the high as everyone were so excitedly screaming here TP(Target Price) RM3 or even more.
Well, what am trying to say here is set some target price and sell it when reached. Unless you are very confident with your research for it to gain more in longer term, otherwise lock the profit first. Notice that we have many choices if you have capital on hand rite? Anyway, It's always about your strategy as different people may have different objective. Try to note down what is your preferred level of profit taking and execute with your strategy. Improve it from time to time, and hope one day we will achieve what we seeking for(of course is $$$).

Aww... guess now I have to start all over again as I'd loss all the profit earned last year(around 40%). It's difficult but I think is just another 'dot' of my life which lead me to understand deeper in how to survive in stock exchange.

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

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The RM20bil

Ever wonder, why government intervened the stock market by injecting RM20bil?

To be honest, I'm quite worried and not sure how this will help our economy fundamentally. However, the market is positively behaved after the government's announcement. The ValueCap emerged out of nowhere with this huge capital like GOD. Khazanah, PNB and also KWAP suddenly became the saviour from certain point of view. Why RM20bil but not RM40bil directly push above 1700? What's the point if not focusing on the exact issue causing the foreigns retreat unconfidently? The stock market is actually reflecting on how well Malaysia economy is doing. I maybe wrong, but am pretty sure is due to your politics, your economic policy and part of the overall sentiment. The government should come out with something really help or boost the economy. As the matter of facts, government can do something like promoting local products oversea, improving the infrastructure, subsidise anything that benefits to the citizen and many more. Sorry to say that, obviously the government have no care to the people but to own benefits(GLC)! The people don't feel secure/safe while you became trader yourself to earn some handsome profits huh? The foreigns fund would be so happy when you helps them to unload more. This is definitely a short term solution only. And is not a wise play after all. Let we all see how long the government can play...

feeling disappointing...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

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Sharing: How To Invest Like Warren Buffett

WARREN Buffett is the third richest person on Earth with a net worth that’s north of US$60 billion (RM258 billion).

I remember in 1992, while interviewing my friend Tan Teng Boo for Malaysian Business magazine, I asked: “Who is Warren Buffett?” Tan told me in enthusiastic detail. In the intervening decades, Tan, a fan and student of Buffett, has racked up a fine record as a fund manager.

In recent months, before global volatility spiked, Tan sold profitable equity positions and raised the cash levels of his domestic and international funds. Initially, as markets continued rising, his moves elicited disdain; but the grumbles gave way to respect for Tan as cash has been the best performing and most defensive asset class in the current global market turmoil! What I have gleaned from studying Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders of his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway and several biographies has helped me better serve my financial planning clients. Warren Edward Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska, the United States, on Aug 30, 1930. His father was a stockbroker whom the younger Buffett adored. In later years, Buffett attributed the honing of his mental investment framework to two teachers: Benjamin Graham (85 per cent) and Philip Fisher (15 per cent)! Over the last half century, Buffett has used the balance sheet of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, as “a canvas to paint” an economic masterpiece through judicious stock investments and the wholesale purchase of businesses.

Here are four less-ons from numerous Buffett-derived principles which I have taught my clients:

1. Nurture emotional strength When times are good, it is easy for all of us to label ourselves investors. But what separates the men from the boys is the ability to keep a cool head when everyone else is terrified by imploding markets. You see, markets rise and fall… with certainty but unknown periodicity and magnitude! So, as Buffett once wrote: “Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”
2. Know the difference between value and price The best way to make money is to buy low and sell high. Only those who truly internalise this principle can grow wealthy through investing. On March 16, 1979, Buffett explained in his 1978 letter to shareholders: “We continue to find… small portions of really outstanding businesses that are available, through the auction pricing mechanism of securities markets, at prices dramatically cheaper than the valuations inferior businesses command on negotiated sales.” Today, more than 36 years later, local and global markets are roiling from Chinese securities markets, commodity and currency downturns. Therefore, countless opportunities will arise for you to identify the yawning gaps between intrinsic economic value and temporarily depressed prices.
3. Allocate capital wisely Buffett has long maintained that his one core skill was capital allocation. When he took over Berkshire Hathaway half a century ago in 1965, it was a struggling New England textile maker. He then allocated the dwindling stream of cash flow from the ailing concern into businesses with brighter prospects. He diverted Berkshire’s free cash flow into positions in general insurer Geico and other undervalued listed companies. So, by the time Buffett shuttered the last Berkshire textile plant in 1985 his reinvented investment holding company enjoyed cash gushing in from diversified insurance, retailing, media, banking and confectionery operations.
4. Maintain large cash reserves for stability and opportunistic flexibility In his 2008 letter (published February 27, 2009) to shareholders, Buffett wrote: “I have pledged — to you, the rating agencies and myself — to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. “We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow’s obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night’s sleep for the chance of extra profits.” So, for the tough road ahead, I encourage you to tap into this incomparable wisdom by studying his Berkshire shareholder letters (www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html).

Source : How To Invest Like Warren Buffett