KLCI gains in mid-day break backed by heavyweights

KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI extended its gains on Monday after last week’s mid-week close, pushed up by heavyweights such as Maybank and Tenaga Nasional, and window dressing activities ahead of the new year.

The KLCI was 10.16 points or 0.61% higher at 1,673.67 from last Wednesday’s close. Bursa Malaysia was closed on Thursday and Friday for birth of Prophet Mohammad and Christmas holidays. 

Shares in Maybank were 9 sen higher to RM8.39, pulling the index 1.47 points up, while Tenaga Nasional was up 12 sen to RM13.32 pushing the index up 1.14 points. IHH Healthcare pulled the index up 1.11 points up, gaining 8 sen to RM6.48.

Key regional markets were mixed due to losses in mainland China and Japan.
At Bursa Malaysia, turnover was 1.009 billion shares valued at RM783.5mil. 

The broader market was stronger with advancers outpacing decliners. There were 412 gainers versus 373 losers while 308 stocks remained unchanged.

Both Brent crude and US crude were last trading slightly lower at US$37.76 per barrel and US$37.81 per barrel respectively. 

Wall Street indices closed lower on Thursday with the DJIA and S&P500 lost 0.29% and 0.16% to end at 17,552.17 and 2,060.99 respectively. 

European stocks ended flat in the shortened Christmas Holiday session on Thursday with thin volumes as the oil price remained choppy. 

Among the top gainers at FBM KLCI at 12.30pm were Petronas Dagangan up 60 sen to RM24.60, Shell up 30 sen  to RM5.20, United U-Li Corp up 29 sen to RM5.09. 

Heading losers were P.I.E. Industrials down 36 sen to RM10.44, LayHong down 22 sen to RM6.00 and Warisan TC down 19 sen to RM2.23. 

The ringgit weakened to RM4.3005 compared to RM4.2985 last Friday.

Crude palm oil’s benchmark third-month contract for March delivery fell RM4 to RM2,483 per tonne on Monday from RM2,487 last Wednesday. 

Among the key regional markets:
Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 0.30% to 18,825.77;
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is down 0.41% to 22,047.44;
Shanghai Composite Index down 0.20% to 3,620.77;
Taiwan's Taiex gained 0.10% to 8,371.31;
South Korea's Kospi down 0.80% to 1,974.66 and;
Singapore's Straits Times Index is up 0.08% to 2,879.92 points.

Spot gold fell 0.20% to US$1,073.99 per troy ounce. 

Malaysia's sovereign rating remains unchanged: S&P's

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia rating outlook remains unchanged at A- and stable despite domestic and global developments says Standard and Poor's. Developments over the past year ranging from the controversy surrounding the state fund 1Malaysia Development Fund (1MDB), China's policy shift and oil prices have not affected Malaysia's economic prospects and fiscal balance sheet said S&P's sovereign & international public finance ratings senior director Kim Eng Tan. "Key risk is political risk and even that has moderated," he told a media webcast on the 2016 Credit Outlook for Asia Pacific. The growth projection remains robust with the sovereign rating agency expecting more than 4 per cent this year and next year. Paul Gruenwald who is chief economist for the region said Asia Pacific will continue to be the fastest growing region in the world led by India. "Growth is however likely to remain weak in the region until confidence in the US recovery gains more traction and confidence in Chinese growth stabilises, including property or financial markets,"he said in a webcast on the regional market outlook. S&P expects China to record a 6 per cent growth in GDP in next few years. Gruenwald was however concerned that the export growth has slipped since the global financial crisis. "The contribution from external demand was one fifth of GDP but it has fallen and it is now contributed by domestic demand for eight years now." Global trade responsiveness to the GDP growth, he said, has shown that the global production is now "on-shoring" on the part of the US and China which traditionally imported capital and goods in the past. On the US Federal Reserve Fund's impending rate hike decision tonight, he said: "This is well telegraphed Fed increase and that it has been priced in at 90 per cent suggest we should not see much market volatility. "A 25 basis points hike today will not knock the wind off anyone's balance sheet."

Bursa Malaysia to see buying interest on Wall Street gains

KUALA LUMPUR: BIMB Securities Research expects the local stock market to gain buying interest today, following a positive lead from Wall Street. 

The research house expects the FBM KLCI to hover at around 1,630 - 1,640.

Overnight at Wall Street, markets closed higher as investors turned positive following the stabilisation in oil prices and high expectations for the Federal Reserve to hike rates.

The DJIA and S&P500 gained 0.90% and 1.06% respectively to end at 17,524.91 and 2,043.41.

Meanwhile in Europe, shares soared yesterday following the recovery in oil prices and positive data from the auto sector. 

On the other hand, key regional markets were mixed ahead of the interest rate hike by the Fed. The FBMKLCI slipped 7.12 points or 0.44% to finish at 1,622.84. 

Bursa’s market breadth was positive with 387 gainers against 386 losers while 389 counters were traded unchanged. TOPGLOV (+86sen), AJI (+62sen) and TAANN (+18sen) led the gainers. While BAT (-100sen), UTDPLT (-48) and GAB (-22sen) led the losers.

Trading participation shows net buying by local institutions and retail while foreign institutions were net sellers. 

SET emerged as the top gainer, 2.60% up to close at 1,300.51 followed by JCI (+0.80%), TWSE (+0.41%), KOSPI (+0.27%), STI (+0.21). While N225 (-1.68%), PSEi (-0.66%), SCHOMP (-0.29%) and HSI (-0.17%) were the losers.

李克強：中國願買大馬國債

中國國務院總理李克強指出，中國願意加強與大馬的金融合作，中國願意按市場購買大馬的國債，並且在大馬發放人民幣債券。

李克強指出，中國希望內需可成為大馬的商機，他有信心中馬的投資前景廣闊。 中國國務院總理李克強趣談大馬果王榴槤時說，很多中國人告訴我，第一次吃（榴槤）可能會很難受，第二次吃會很難忘，而第三次吃就會忘不了。” 中國總理李克強今早10時抵達吉隆坡香格里拉大酒店，並趕在馬中經濟高層開始前，與副首相拿督斯里阿末扎希、第二貿工部長拿督斯里黃家泉及大馬10大富豪進行短時間會面。 這10人包括常青集團兼世華媒體集團執行主席丹斯里張曉卿爵士、丹斯里郭鶴年長子郭孔丞、楊忠禮集團創辦人丹斯里楊忠禮、IOI集團主席丹斯里李深靜、亞航集團創辦人丹斯里東尼費南達斯、馬來西亞中華總商會（中總）總會長拿督戴良業、吉隆坡甲洞首席執行員拿督斯里李愛賢、聯昌銀行首席執行員拿督蘇萊曼及國庫控股首席執行員等。

A story of Inflation...

Today went out lunch with colleague nearby Jalan Ampang. Mixed rice always come to my mind as I can choose the dishes I like to eat. This time I've taken a vege(KaiLan) and mushroom chicken, 1 vege and 1 meat with a small rice cost me about RM6 and bought a RM1.5 pack of fruit(a less quarter of pineapple) later. Well... RM6 + RM1.5 doesn't sound expensive now a day especially area nearby KLCC.

Unfortunately, we were forced to take shelter inside the old building(Wisma Central) by a heavy rain. So, we all snakes(lazy to get back to work) and yumcha(drink tea) for a while at the mamak store. While everyone were talking, I suddenly raised a question to them... "hey, how much was the cheapest per pack of fruit you guys bought last time and when was it?" while pointing the one I bought earlier. They replied "RM1 or RM0.50 long ago la". However, I told them the lowest price I got was RM0.50 during my primary education(which was around 18 years passed). The figure doesn't seems too big, but it'd got 200% increased when you calculate in terms of percentage. Well, that means a lot to me :P...

Besides that, lets take the price of mixed rice for the calculation... my lowest for 1 vege and 1 meat 10 years back was about RM3.5(I think lesser than this) which equivalent around 50% la...
Meaning to say, you are using twice the money to buy the same or even lesser quantity for the same thing 10years after. Somehow I thought this way... my RM10k saving 10years back has became a "value" of RM5k even tough you still can see the figure of RM10k in the bank book.

Eh, not saying that saving is not good here or not asking you to stop saving... Personally thinks saving is a must and is so important especially for the young one. But saving blindly without a plan is very dangerous as you don't realized the value of your money has become lesser than before. Suggest, to save for a purpose, such as for any types of investment, or something you think is worth buying that can create value for you....

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

MUFG substantial shareholder in Public Bank

KUALA LUMPUR: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) has emerged as a substantial shareholder in Public Bank with an indirect stake of 5.002%.

A filing with Bursa Malaysia on Thursday showed the stake accounted for 193.15 million shares as at Oct 21.

MUFG is deemed interest in the shares via its stakes in its units and also via a 15% stake in Morgan Stanley Group.

Public Bank, which has a paid-up of 3.861 billion shares, shed two sen to RM18.16 at midday.

Its largest shareholder is Consolidated Teh Holdings Sdn Bhd with 840.13 million shares followed by the Employees Provident Fund with 601.18 million shares.

Ringgit opens lower versus US$

KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit opened lower against the US dollar on Thursday as the greenback firmed after the Federal Reserve open market committee's statement  raised expectations of an interest hike in December this year, dealers said.

At 9.06am, the local unit was quoted at 4.2920/3010 against the dollar from Wednesday's 4.2670/2770.

The ringgit was also lower against other major currencies except for the British pound.

It was down versus the yen to 3.5550/5640 from 3.5437/5535 on Wednesday, slid against the Singapore dollar to 3.0589/0671 from 3.0537/0631 and declined vis-a-vis the pound sterling to 6.5505/5668 from 6.5272/5442 yesterday.

The local note appreciated against the euro to 4.6813/6928 from 4.7125/7239  on Tuesday. - Bernama

隆市白领钱不够用 刷卡开销穷上加穷

（吉隆坡27日讯）繁华都市的白领族，虽然生活看似「光鲜」，但面对著数之不尽的生活诱惑，加上百物上涨而层层加码的基本开销，每月薪水几近「见底」，甚至入不敷出，令白领族的生活被压得喘不过气，纷纷大嘆生活难过！

《东方日报》访问生活在吉隆坡的白领族，得悉大部分城市上班族的每月收入，一般介于2000至4000令吉，双薪家庭的每月收入，则介于5000至7000令吉不等，在百物涨腾的年代，即使大家被迫学习缩衣节食，努力克制欲望，每月的基本开销，包括银行贷款（如房贷、车贷或租金）、伙食费、水电费、电话费、家用及孩子开销，都已佔据了收入的一半，剩下的「可周转现金」仅有区区数百令吉，甚至数十令吉，沦为俗称的「月光族」，备感无奈。

在周而復始的钱不够用窘境下，一些人选择以信用卡应付开销，结果又因此陷入卡债还不清的恶性循环中，这也就解释了早前的调查显示，我国每年负债人数逐渐上升，5万名年轻人在5年內被判破產，当中大部分是因信用卡卡债问题的现象。

购物前货比三家

生活在大都市，一名白领上班族即使月入三四千，在目前的物价水平下，以「拿高薪的穷人」加以形容其实並不为过。

以一名月入4500令吉的上班族为例，在扣除公积金及所得税后，每月实际收入约为3800令吉，扣除日常基本开销及零碎的杂费后，基本上就所剩无几。

现年27岁的客服人员李佳洁受访时表示，如今每月凈收入为2900令吉，在扣除2200令吉的基本开销后，大约剩下700令吉，为了存钱，她选择减少娱乐消费，如看电影，反而尽量在家里解决三餐，少到消费昂贵的餐厅用餐。

「同时，我也开始减少购买衣服、鞋子和零食等身外物；消费之前也会货比三家，尽量省钱。」

育有2名孩子的梁祺超（38岁 营业销售员）则说，其月薪加津贴约5300令吉，扣除公积金及所得税后的净收入约4800令吉，但沉重的家庭负担和开销让他几乎每月都出现超支，只能透过刷卡周转的方式应对。

「即使我和太太都有工作，家庭收入约7000令吉，但是扣除房贷车贷孩子生活开销后，基本上可周转的现金只有区区470令吉，每到月中几乎就空了，必须靠信用卡来添油或购买家中伙食，如此才能勉强渡过一个月。」

他说，如果期间发生任何状况必须额外「破財」，只能动用单身时所存到的储蓄，生儿育女后根本没有多余的钱可储蓄。

从事业务发展工作的郭采霓（24岁）则说，如今每月收入约2600令吉，若扣除公积金仅剩下2300令吉，每月的基本开销已佔了1700令吉；换言之，她每月仅有600令吉的可流动现金，若不用说还要储蓄、消费或旅行。

「虽然我无需缴还房贷或车贷，但长期在外工作和应酬，因此也需在外解决三餐，每月需花费至少200令吉。」

「不过，如果在外吃饭的次数多，消费高，我会直接停止血拼等开销，拉长补短避免出现『超支』情况。」

银行职员罗惠英（28岁）表示，每月收入扣除基本开销后，大约只剩下1000令吉；虽然还有一笔钱，但实际上也不够用，尤其要买新车的话，就得花费掉这笔钱，另外还要考量到其他娱乐或花费。

先存后花　强制储蓄

28岁补习中心老师吴勇强也表示，每月收入扣除基本开销后只剩下400至500令吉，根本钱不够用，更甭谈储蓄。

他也说，为了存钱，都会尽量避免其他娱乐消费，包括去游玩前也会再三考量，如之前原本要与朋友出去游玩，但后来发现住宿费太贵，最终决定放弃。

「我还在烦恼有没有能力购买房屋，如今百物上涨，不论居住在乡村或城市，都在喊穷。」

Source

Perhaps buying into property counter would benefit in the long run?

While the property market still pose no optimistic, perhaps buying into property counter would benefit in the long run as some of it has dropped below the fair value of the company(buy when others are fearful?). Somehow, take a look at these posted few days back L&G & GOB. Both have significantly increased for the pass few days(less than a month). 

Even fund manager are started to looking into this sector currently... Top fund buys property stocks at ‘bargain’ prices

Look's like is time to do some research in property counters :)

Stock Quick Glance: L&G[3174]

LAND & GENERAL BHD

Background:
A property and development company(which also involving in Education and other segments like plantations, hospitality and part of oversea development in Australia)

1. Why should we quick glance of this company?
- High ROE, PE <10, and got dividend!

- Huge cash flow(Total of 363mil of cash and not to mentioned the inventories, receivables and the tax that the company going to get back)

363mil/1078mil of shares =  33cents of cash per share
This means paying 41cents(current share price) to owned 33cents of cash and 8cents worth of stocks!
Anyway, this does not mean anything but obviously this counter is undervalued!

Besides, the health financial reports and the growing revenue speak louder than words!

2. Future developments:
- Astoria Project(GDV of 845mil)
- Foresta Phase 2(GDV of 490mil)
- Landed residential(GDV of 280mil)
- so on...

*btw, don't forget their NTA of around 60cents(which considered the share is also trading at 35% discount of current price)

There are few things to take not about the company are:
- weak property market sentiment
- material mitigation(late completion of project)

- not to forget the low debts of 85mil
- ICULS will also dilute the EPS in future


Property is expensive now? perhaps considering invest in the company with cheap price?
*I do holding L&G shares but just wanted to share what is noticed, it's not a buy/sell call as just for reference only

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

Fisher's 15 Points In Fundamental Analysis

All good principles are timeless, and Fisher's famous "Fifteen Points to Look for in a Common Stock" from Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits remain as relevant today as when they were first published. The 15 points are a qualitative guide to finding superbly managed companies with excellent growth prospects. According to Fisher, a company must qualify on most of these 15 points to be considered a worthwhile investment:

1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years? A company seeking a sustained period of spectacular growth must have products that address large and expanding markets.

2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited? All markets eventually mature, and to maintain above-average growth over a period of decades, a company must continually develop new products to either expand existing markets or enter new ones.

3. How effective are the company's research-and-development efforts in relation to its size? To develop new products, a company's research-and-development (R&D) effort must be both efficient and effective.

4. Does the company have an above-average sales organization? Fisher wrote that in a competitive environment, few products or services are so compelling that they will sell to their maximum potential without expert merchandising.

5. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin? Berkshire Hathaway's BRK.B vice-chairman Charlie Munger is fond of saying that if something is not worth doing, it is not worth doing well. Similarly, a company can show tremendous growth, but the growth must bring worthwhile profits to reward investors.

6. What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins? Fisher stated, "It is not the profit margin of the past but those of the future that are basically important to the investor." Because inflation increases a company's expenses and competitors will pressure profit margins, you should pay attention to a company's strategy for reducing costs and improving profit margins over the long haul. This is where the moat framework we've spoken about throughout the Investing Classroom series can be a big help.

7. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations? According to Fisher, a company with good labor relations tends to be more profitable than one with mediocre relations because happy employees are likely to be more productive. There is no single yardstick to measure the state of a company's labor relations, but there are a few items investors should investigate. First, companies with good labor relations usually make every effort to settle employee grievances quickly. In addition, a company that makes above-average profits, even while paying above-average wages to its employees is likely to have good labor relations. Finally, investors should pay attention to the attitude of top management toward employees.

8. Does the company have outstanding executive relations? Just as having good employee relations is important, a company must also cultivate the right atmosphere in its executive suite. Fisher noted that in companies where the founding family retains control, family members should not be promoted ahead of more able executives. In addition, executive salaries should be at least in line with industry norms. Salaries should also be reviewed regularly so that merited pay increases are given without having to be demanded.

9. Does the company have depth to its management? As a company continues to grow over a span of decades, it is vital that a deep pool of management talent be properly developed. Fisher warned investors to avoid companies where top management is reluctant to delegate significant authority to lower-level managers.

10. How good are the company's cost analysis and accounting controls? A company cannot deliver outstanding results over the long term if it is unable to closely track costs in each step of its operations. Fisher stated that getting a precise handle on a company's cost analysis is difficult, but an investor can discern which companies are exceptionally deficient--these are the companies to avoid.

11. Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industry involved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competition? Fisher described this point as a catch-all because the "important clues" will vary widely among industries. The skill with which a retailer, like Wal-Mart WMT or Costco COST, handles its merchandising and inventory is of paramount importance. However, in an industry such as insurance, a completely different set of business factors is important. It is critical for an investor to understand which industry factors determine the success of a company and how that company stacks up in relation to its rivals.

12. Does the company have a short-range or long-range outlook in regard to profits? Fisher argued that investors should take a long-range view, and thus should favor companies that take a long-range view on profits. In addition, companies focused on meeting Wall Street's quarterly earnings estimates may forgo beneficial long-term actions if they cause a short-term hit to earnings. Even worse, management may be tempted to make aggressive accounting assumptions in order to report an acceptable quarterly profit number.

13. In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require sufficient equity financing so that the larger number of shares then outstanding will largely cancel the existing stockholders' benefit from this anticipated growth? As an investor, you should seek companies with sufficient cash or borrowing capacity to fund growth without diluting the interests of its current owners with follow-on equity offerings.

14. Does management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are going well but "clam up" when troubles and disappointments occur? Every business, no matter how wonderful, will occasionally face disappointments. Investors should seek out management that reports candidly to shareholders all aspects of the business, good or bad.

15. Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity? The accounting scandals that led to the bankruptcies of Enron and WorldCom should highlight the importance of investing only with management teams of unquestionable integrity. Investors will be well-served by following Fisher's warning that regardless of how highly a company rates on the other 14 points, "If there is a serious question of the lack of a strong management sense of trusteeship for shareholders, the investor should never seriously consider participating in such an enterprise.

Source

TOYOTA Price Increase as USD goes STRONGER

TOYOTA Price Increase as USD goes STRONGER :(

YTL Power deal expires, bids for 'short-term' contract

PETALING JAYA: Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) has stopped buying electricity from YTL Power International Bhd following the expiry of a power purchase agreement (PPA) between the two companies.

“With the expiry, YTL no longer exports power to the grid effective Oct 1, 2015,” TNB said in a statement yesterday.

It is unclear how the latest development would impact YTL Power. The company had previously said it was in discussions with the Energy Commission (EC) for an extension of the PPA.

Shares in YTL Power were unchanged at RM1.52, with 4.26 million shares being traded. The stock price was adjusted from its Friday’s closing price of RM1.62 as it was traded ex-dividend yesterday.

In the statement, TNB said the PPA, which was signed back on March 31, 1993 with YTL Power’s subsidiary – YTL Power Generation Sdn Bhd – expired on Sept 30, 2015.

“Concurrently, a leasing agreement which YTL had entered into with TNB to lease the latter’s land in Paka in Terengganu and Pasir Gudang in Johor to build its power stations was also affected,” TNB said.

The power giant said that the PPA signed with YTL Power was its first PPA with an independent power producer (IPP), and the only PPA that was based on a take-or-pay mechanism for a period of 21 years.

It has been reported that YTL Power has been selected under a “short-term capacity” bid by the EC to continue to supply electricity from its existing facility.

YTL Power had previously been quoted as saying that the company was currently in discussions on the terms and conditions and that the new PPA was expected to be signed for the period from March 1, 2015 to Dec 31, 2018.

According to sources, the bidding process for the new PPA has already closed and the result is expected to be announced soon.

“The short-term contract is expected to supply about 580MW of electricity, and should YTL bag the contract, it will continue to supply electricity from its existing power plants,” sources said.

YTL Power has two gas-fired power plants in Malaysia - one in Paka, Terengganu, and another in Pasir Gudang, Johor – with a combined generation capacity of 1,212MW.

Other IPPs, namely, Powertek Bhd, controlled by 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) and Malakoff Corp Bhd’s Port Dickson Power Sdn Bhd are also bidding for an extension of their PPA contracts.

Meanwhile, it is believed that YTL Power has received a conditional offer from the EC.

Among the conditions include YTL Power resolving land issues with TNB, as well as its gas supply agreement with Petroliam Nasional Bhd.

Recall, the EC had earlier announced that it would be conducting an open-bidding exercise to extend expiring PPAs to address a power shortage due to a delay in two major power plants and to maximise the use of the existing assets.

The two plants are 1MDB’s 2,000MW coal-fired power plant called Project 3B, and Project 4A, which is a 1,000MW-1,400MW gas-fired power plant to be built in Johor.

StarBiz had reported that while fast-tracking the construction of new power plants was one way of addressing the problem, industry players have opined that a more immediate solution was to look at repowering expiring power plants such as YTL Power, Powertek and Port Dickson Power.

“It may not be a long contract. They could just tap the existing plant to fill up the gap should there be a shortfall in the energy-generation capacity in view of the delays,” said an industry observer.

So far, the EC has extended the concession agreement for five IPPs, with a generating capacity of 2,915MW. The extension has been ongoing since 2011 when the EC took over the awarding of new power plants in the country in a move to revamp the national electricity-generation sector.

According to an analyst, about 15% of YTL Power’s profits are from its local power plant business, while the remaining comes from its overseas assets.

In the financial year ended June 30, 2015 (FY15), YTL Power’s net profit fell 25% to RM901mil from RM1.2bil in FY14. Its revenue was also down to RM11.93bil from RM14.44bil a year ago due to the lower units of electricity sold and the lower electricity price as a result of lower fuel prices.

source

Stock Quick Glance: GOB[1147]

GLOBAL ORIENTAL BERHAD

background: 4 core business segments:
- property development, which is engaged in the development of residential and commercial properties, and sale of development land(highlighted red is contributed largely for the current revenue, refer to Q1 2016)
- construction, which is engaged in the construction of property development projects and other similar construction activities
- property letting, which is engaged in the rental of properties
- investment holding

Quick glance:
What is the Company's plans:
- Clear off debts & future development plan (Source)
- highlighted below shows they are desperate to clear the debts as last Q2 sold two more lands for cash...

How much debts?
- 262.8mil

How to clear?
- Cash from balance sheet shows that the company has 69mil (not to mention 39mil inventories and 35mil of receivable)

- selling da:men for 488mil

Total of cash = 557mil(assume if da:men confirmed sold)

Net cash total/share is 0.647(12.5% upside of current 0.575) as 294.2mil(557mil-262.8mil) / 454.7(mil of shares)

However, I can also conservatively calculate GOB share price at around 0.78 per share(regardless of other segment's revenue, see Pic A) by Q2 2016 as 353.1mil/454.7(mil of shares)
353.1mil = 488mil + 39mil inventories + 35mil of receivable +16.3mil cash coming in future(see below) - total of debts

Pic A:

Conclusion: GOB is considered undervalue even current weak market sentiment for property segment!
*I didn't hold any share of GOB as just write for fun, it's not a buy/sell call as just for reference only
*too bad no dividend

Other info:


btw, sharing a chart of after AMPROP sold off Kesas for 280mil cash last time at April 2014.
- estimated upside of 80-90%

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

EcoWorld: 刘启盛重提实达集团遭恶意收购 “财富可夺团队抢不走”

The "Team" is the key of making EcoWorld so successful. EcoWorld the "shadow" of SP Setia has potentially becoming the "taikor" of the property sector in very short of time. Impressively, they have planned to go beyond Malaysia(as targeted oversea spots like Hong Kong, London, Singapore and many more). Not to forget the future plan for setting up the first property investment SPAC(special-purpose acquisition company). I would say he is a guy with great vision and undeniable he is a well-planner. Salute!

（吉隆坡27日讯）你可拿走我的资产，却带不走我的团队！

针对一手苦心经营成功的实达集团被“恶意收购”，丹斯里刘启盛今日开腔评论此事，声称没人可带走曾与他打拼天下的团队。

他说，在2012年，实达集团被“恶意收购”，然后他在短短3年内创办绿盛世集团，并达到今天的成就。

“你可以拿走我的资产，但就是带不走我的工作人员、我的团队。”

绿盛世集团主席刘启盛今日出席安联银行中小企业革新挑战比赛宣布20人入围名单大会时，与入围者这么指出。出席此大会的嘉宾包括安联银行执行副总裁兼交易及中小企业金融组主任许永瑞。

团队是成功关键

刘启盛呼吁企业家重视栽培团队里的人才，因现在创业不如以前，并非有金钱就能取代人才。

“以前的年代，身为老板的你只要有钱，就能裁掉你的员工再聘请新的一位来取代，但现在却不同了。

“你的企业是否成功，与你的团队有莫大关系，因此你们要专注在培训及留住这些团队。”

刘启盛表示重视年轻人才，他们能提供很多创新点子，有助于企业发展。

努力改善生意

刘启盛也鼓励没有成功入围20强决赛的企业家勿放弃，并继续努力改善其生意。

他也提醒出席者，要成为卓越的企业家并不容易，并形容一名企业家每天都会面对新的问题及新挑战。

与此同时，他呼吁企业家，在成功后，不要忘了回馈社会。

Source

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

more posts

Today USD vs MYR

non-stop dropping... :(
when will be the end?

[Reshare] Nazir Razak: Moody's 'junk' rating due to negative coverage of Malaysia

Well...  undeniable, 1MDB really is a time bomb which dragging down Malaysia reputation. What a 'junk' rating!

"PETALING JAYA: Financial controversies in Malaysia need to be addressed, urges prominent banker and CIMB Group chairman Datuk Seri Nazir Razak.

"This is worrying. The market is much more negative about Malaysia than the rating agencies, taking us into 'junk' category, way below our fundamentals," said the brother of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak in a post on his Instagram on Thursday.

Nazir, who is also CIMB group chairman, suspects that credit-default-swap traders have placed Malaysia in the "junk" category due to the large amount of negative coverage in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and the New York Times.

"All 'capital' people read at least one, if not all of them. We have to change the current narrative about Malaysia with answers or legal suits; can't just ignore them," he warned.

Though Nazir did not specify what Malaysia had to answer for, the country has made international headlines for controversies involving the Government-owned investment arm 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB)." source

Happy Holiday to Malaysia. Have FUN!!!

貸款難批‧負面財富效應‧房價不會崩跌

（吉隆坡23日訊）大馬產業領域持續受到消費者負擔能力惡化衝擊，銀行借貸條件更為嚴峻則是“雪上加霜”；負面財富效應及市場謹慎情緒，料打擊產業的購買情緒，使產業股受到過低估值衝擊，但產業價格崩潰的幾率微小。

金融危機時期
房價僅跌2%

根據分析，就算在2008-2009年的全球金融危機時期，本地住宅產業價格僅微跌2%，比較馬股綜指則重挫37%。

分析員也預測，整體產業銷售成長持續放緩，惟仍看好持有便宜地皮及資產負債表強勁的產業股。

大眾研究指出，國內住宅產業貸款申請成長持續放緩，今年7月份按年下跌3.3%，使住宅產業貸款批准按年下跌17.8%，顯示銀行貸款更為嚴格，使產業需求在融資放緩擠壓下進一步向下調。

大眾預期在打債之下，未來的貸款要求可能更嚴格。

股市興衰影響房市

目前馬股走低將進一步衝擊置產活動，因為股市興衰與房市息息相關。

大眾將馬股綜指今年杪目標降至1740點，之前預測為1830點，使今年全年目標扯平無驚喜。

馬幣匯率急貶及馬股受到下行衝擊，令市場措手不及，出現負面財富效應，衝擊房產買氣。不過，大眾認為，雖然目前產業領域營運環境艱辛，但產業價格崩潰的可能性非常微小。

大眾看好擁有便宜地皮成本及強勁資產負債表的產業股，使一些產業股估值比賬面折扣逾50%，比持有實際產業資產更便宜，特別是長期將隨著通膨一起揚升，同時可獲約3%的周息率。

“若市場沒有出現重大震盪，產業價格料保持平穩，特別是過去3年平均價仍取得10.6%增長，主要是產業發展商的資產價值、土地及投資資產仍完好無損。”

大多數產業發展商今年次季營業額仍取得成長，因為獲得健全未入賬銷售支撐，預料今年下半年取得令人鼓舞的營業額。

由於市場挑戰，使產業發展商推介較小規模的產業計劃，並專注在有地及可負擔房產。

“若以產業領域股價對賬面值比的高低水平為准，目前的下行估值約為30%，不過上升空間則達到約77%，風險對回酬比例仍看高一線。”

產業股過度調整

大眾相信目前產業股已過度調整，維持產業領域“加碼”評級。

大眾認為，產業發展商的盈利主要來自土地增值及發展利潤。假設僅計算發展利潤，而不將土地增值考慮在內，以目前產業股的股價估值為准，預料產業價格將下跌10至20%，特別是大多數產業股估值，比重估淨資產值折扣約70%。

大資本產業發展商――實達集團（SPSETIA，8664，主板產業組）通常在1.2倍賬面比水平交易，在最新低水平落在1.4倍交易。UEM陽光（UEMS，5148，主板產業組）則是近期跌勢最嚴重產業股，賬面值比一度深跌至0.65倍低點（最近回揚至0.76倍）。

根據大馬交易所產業股指數顯示，目前整體產業領域的估值，已跌至比平均賬面值比折價35%，市場一旦反彈，跌得最深的產業股，料獲得較好的反彈。

3產業股獲點名

●實達集團

具領導地位、估值便宜及擁有抗跌品牌的產業股，手中握有110億令吉的未入賬銷售，擁有2、3年盈利透明度。地庫達4千英畝，發展總值達逾700億令吉。

●UEM陽光

約80%地皮坐落在依斯干達地區，為努沙再也最大地主。手握地庫1萬1千英畝，發展總值約達1千億令吉。

●怡保花園（IGB，1597，主板產業組）

最具抗跌能力，特別是逾75%盈利來自穩定租金收入，包括零售及辦公室產業，未來受看好新產業發展計劃，為柔佛州南部谷中城計劃（Mid Valley Southkey），後者發展總值估計為80億令吉。

海外產業計劃則在英國倫敦，料在2015年下半年推介，此綜合發展計劃的發展總值為42億令吉。

（星洲日報／財經‧報導：李文龍)

分析員預測，整體產業銷售成長持續放緩，惟仍看好持有便宜地皮及資產負債表強勁的產業股。（圖：馬新社）

Days after the RM20bil donkey show

Just about a week after the fund of RM20bil announced to save the day. However, the market somehow behaved unexpectedly when everyone still enjoying the ride back above 168X. KLCI has been consecutively dropped for the pass few days and MYR weaken to 4.33+ against USD. Besides, the foreign fund were also found retreating...

Up until now, we never hear of any news from the ValueCap but merely based on own imagination. Many so called GLC related counters were already rebound for more than 20% within days after the announcement. But things seems to be so abstract as no one know where it gone. @.@a

Well, stock market really is a place full of excitement. It can climb up few hundred points up because of some "news" and also can back to square within days. Somehow questions still remained blurred, where and when this RM20bil be rolling out? Donkey show were about to be over and it's time for the real call. Show time's coming, either it is a bull or a bear? we shall see... enjoy it...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

When can Ringgit back from the "death"?

One thing we are so sure for dragging down the Ringgit Malaysia are those scandals related to 1MDB(not to blame the global sentimental yet). The BNM Governor has been so quite since every rotten apples being discovered day by day. Really glad THEY have started to voice out for the good of the country. She is right that the people deserve to know what is really happening. Well, how long this 1MDB being questioned or investigated? Until now we have no clear answer about it! What is so difficult by just showing how the company's transaction flows? The PM should play an important role as he chairs the fund's advisory board. Don't just delay answering or giving excuses as require more time to do investigation. Do let others to help if you not able to do it, many out there are willing to lean a helping hand... 

Back to the subject! When can Ringgit back from the "death"? Easy, stand out and clear your name.

Looking forward to this...

Time for a popcorn!!!

• Malaysia PM involved in U.S. corruption inquiry - NYT >Source<
• Why will Nuts feel disappointed? just shut up and work like a dog...
• The world is watching

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

Invest in GOLD?

I'm still remember 3 years back, I'd invested into Gold(paper terms) when the price was about RM165/g. Back then, fuyoh... many banks were offering gold account for you to hedge against inflation(they said). However, my thought that time was just to keep some of my saving in other types of portfolio rather than property as many seniors were still not encouraging me in stock trading yet. Soon, I'd began to buy into gold and have waited for it to hit another height(RM180/g - 2012). Unfortunately, gold price later was not as how beautiful it's looks and the spread(buy/sell rate) was not that good(RM7 of spread) to an ordinary man like me. Why not good? For example, Banks selling at RM10 to you but you can only sell to them at RM3(take a look at below screenshot taken just now)...

Well, the charges is quite expensive as every transactions(buy and sell) imposed a 4.24%... Meaning I need to earn more than 4.24% only can considered as profit. Somehow, things has not gone as good as it was expected,  and sadly the gold price kept dropping after I'd bought in(stupid me). Months later, I decided to sell all after it dropped to RM155/g(forced to sell at RM148/g, due to the spread) which equivalent to 10.x% loss(hmm...just realised I know cut loss even before stock trading... hahaha).

After this experience, I would only think that gold as an jewellery which for you to display or show off(but some time keep, like the old folks do). Besides, I will not think this as an type of investment anymore since then. Why? because it's actually has no appreciate value but merely depend on the supply and demand. In fact, it will not generate you passive income like stock giving out dividend/bonus/free gift or eat(during AGM).

Anyway, not to admit that gold is really a beautiful metal when you are holding it physically. That why I've just bought some to wear regardless it will appreciate or not. kikiki... it's still shinning :)

Well, don't get mad at me as it's just my opinion or you can share your view if you disagree with me. Sorry ya...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

A dummy's trading experience Part-4: Profit Taking

Actually, it has been almost 2 years(3months to go) since I started investing in stock exchange. Well... honestly, I probably loss more than earn. In fact, I'd experienced 2 times of biggest dropped so far which the first time was crude oil slumped(last year) and another one just happened recently(after July this year). My biggest loss was around 30% last year(but slowing recovering to less than 20%) and this is the reason why my blog always have the terms of cutting loss(see this Cut Loss). However, not much to share about how I locked my profit as this is so subjective. As the matter of facts, my preferred level of profit taking is when it hit 30% in short term(6 months) but my initial strategy was to keep for more than 2 years if the company is paying dividend. There is no right or wrong but, I learnt to take profit that if noticed the market sentiment is weaker and the company ROE/EPS starting to drop(and many more factors). Why no right or wrong? For your info, my brightest star last time, SBC(bought at RM1.3 shown in pict) has once went all the way to RM1.9 and I'd sold all at RM1.85. Speechlessly happy, when you think you won the market huh? Lol, it somehow went above RM2 after APRIL the same year :)... and thats the meaning why no right or wrong about it as long as you earn then is considered good.

Lucky, I didn't chase the high as everyone were so excitedly screaming here TP(Target Price) RM3 or even more.
Well, what am trying to say here is set some target price and sell it when reached. Unless you are very confident with your research for it to gain more in longer term, otherwise lock the profit first. Notice that we have many choices if you have capital on hand rite? Anyway, It's always about your strategy as different people may have different objective. Try to note down what is your preferred level of profit taking and execute with your strategy. Improve it from time to time, and hope one day we will achieve what we seeking for(of course is $$$).

Aww... guess now I have to start all over again as I'd loss all the profit earned last year(around 40%). It's difficult but I think is just another 'dot' of my life which lead me to understand deeper in how to survive in stock exchange.

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

The RM20bil

Ever wonder, why government intervened the stock market by injecting RM20bil?

To be honest, I'm quite worried and not sure how this will help our economy fundamentally. However, the market is positively behaved after the government's announcement. The ValueCap emerged out of nowhere with this huge capital like GOD. Khazanah, PNB and also KWAP suddenly became the saviour from certain point of view. Why RM20bil but not RM40bil directly push above 1700? What's the point if not focusing on the exact issue causing the foreigns retreat unconfidently? The stock market is actually reflecting on how well Malaysia economy is doing. I maybe wrong, but am pretty sure is due to your politics, your economic policy and part of the overall sentiment. The government should come out with something really help or boost the economy. As the matter of facts, government can do something like promoting local products oversea, improving the infrastructure, subsidise anything that benefits to the citizen and many more. Sorry to say that, obviously the government have no care to the people but to own benefits(GLC)! The people don't feel secure/safe while you became trader yourself to earn some handsome profits huh? The foreigns fund would be so happy when you helps them to unload more. This is definitely a short term solution only. And is not a wise play after all. Let we all see how long the government can play...

feeling disappointing...

Hope you enjoy reading, good luck and to be continued...

Still learning and always will be :)

more posts

Sharing: How To Invest Like Warren Buffett

WARREN Buffett is the third richest person on Earth with a net worth that’s north of US$60 billion (RM258 billion).

I remember in 1992, while interviewing my friend Tan Teng Boo for Malaysian Business magazine, I asked: “Who is Warren Buffett?” Tan told me in enthusiastic detail. In the intervening decades, Tan, a fan and student of Buffett, has racked up a fine record as a fund manager.

In recent months, before global volatility spiked, Tan sold profitable equity positions and raised the cash levels of his domestic and international funds. Initially, as markets continued rising, his moves elicited disdain; but the grumbles gave way to respect for Tan as cash has been the best performing and most defensive asset class in the current global market turmoil! What I have gleaned from studying Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders of his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway and several biographies has helped me better serve my financial planning clients. Warren Edward Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska, the United States, on Aug 30, 1930. His father was a stockbroker whom the younger Buffett adored. In later years, Buffett attributed the honing of his mental investment framework to two teachers: Benjamin Graham (85 per cent) and Philip Fisher (15 per cent)! Over the last half century, Buffett has used the balance sheet of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, as “a canvas to paint” an economic masterpiece through judicious stock investments and the wholesale purchase of businesses.

Here are four less-ons from numerous Buffett-derived principles which I have taught my clients:

1. Nurture emotional strength When times are good, it is easy for all of us to label ourselves investors. But what separates the men from the boys is the ability to keep a cool head when everyone else is terrified by imploding markets. You see, markets rise and fall… with certainty but unknown periodicity and magnitude! So, as Buffett once wrote: “Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”
2. Know the difference between value and price The best way to make money is to buy low and sell high. Only those who truly internalise this principle can grow wealthy through investing. On March 16, 1979, Buffett explained in his 1978 letter to shareholders: “We continue to find… small portions of really outstanding businesses that are available, through the auction pricing mechanism of securities markets, at prices dramatically cheaper than the valuations inferior businesses command on negotiated sales.” Today, more than 36 years later, local and global markets are roiling from Chinese securities markets, commodity and currency downturns. Therefore, countless opportunities will arise for you to identify the yawning gaps between intrinsic economic value and temporarily depressed prices.
3. Allocate capital wisely Buffett has long maintained that his one core skill was capital allocation. When he took over Berkshire Hathaway half a century ago in 1965, it was a struggling New England textile maker. He then allocated the dwindling stream of cash flow from the ailing concern into businesses with brighter prospects. He diverted Berkshire’s free cash flow into positions in general insurer Geico and other undervalued listed companies. So, by the time Buffett shuttered the last Berkshire textile plant in 1985 his reinvented investment holding company enjoyed cash gushing in from diversified insurance, retailing, media, banking and confectionery operations.
4. Maintain large cash reserves for stability and opportunistic flexibility In his 2008 letter (published February 27, 2009) to shareholders, Buffett wrote: “I have pledged — to you, the rating agencies and myself — to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. “We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow’s obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night’s sleep for the chance of extra profits.” So, for the tough road ahead, I encourage you to tap into this incomparable wisdom by studying his Berkshire shareholder letters (www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html).

Source : How To Invest Like Warren Buffett